Statistics 309

Introduction to Mathematical Statistics I

Course Information

Professor Bret Larget is teaching Statistics 309 during the Fall 2008 semester.

The teaching assistant is Jingjiang (Jack) Peng

Course Syllabus

Office Hours

Person	Hours	Location	Phone	E-Mail
Bret Larget:	Mon 11-12pm Wed 2:00-3:30pm Thur 1:30-3:00pm	MSC 1250A	262-7979	`brlarget@wisc.edu`
Jing Jiang (Jack) Peng:	Tue 11:30am - 1:30pm	MSC 1275B	262-1577	`peng@stat.wisc.edu`

Course Schedule

Day	Date	Topic	Text	Extras
M	Sept. 1	Labor Day
W	Sept. 3	Introduction	Chapter 1	Notes Plots
F	Sept. 5	Properties of Probability Models	Chapter 1
M	Sept. 8	Combinatorial Probability	Chapter 1
W	Sept. 10	Combinatorial Probability	Chapter 1	Assignment 1 due Extra Problems
F	Sept. 12	Combinatorial Probability	Chapter 1
M	Sept. 15	Conditional Probability and Independence	Chapter 1
W	Sept. 17	Conditional Probability and Independence	Chapter 1	Assignment 2 due
F	Sept. 19	Random Variables	Chapter 2	Note on the Longest Run of Heads
M	Sept. 22	Distributions	Chapter 2
W	Sept. 24	Discrete Distributions	Chapter 2	Assignment 3 due
F	Sept. 26	Discrete Distributions	Chapter 2
M	Sept. 29	Continuous Distributions	Chapter 2	Extra Problems Solutions
W	Oct. 1	Continuous Distributions	Chapter 2	Assignment 4 due
F	Oct. 3	Exams 1A and 1B (cover Chapter 1)
M	Oct. 6	Cumulative Distribution Functions	Chapter 2
W	Oct. 8	One-dimensional Change of Variable	Chapter 2	Assignment 5 due
F	Oct. 10	One-dimensional Change of Variable Joint Distributions	Chapter 2
M	Oct. 13	Joint Distributions	Chapter 2
W	Oct. 15	Joint Distributions Conditioning and Independence	Chapter 2	Assignment 6 due
F	Oct. 17	Conditioning and Independence Multidimensional Change of Variable	Chapter 2
M	Oct. 20	Simulation	Chapter 2
W	Oct. 22	Expectation of Discrete Random Variables	Chapter 3	Assignment 7 due
F	Oct. 24	Exams 2A and 2B (cover Chapter 2)		Chapter 2 Summary
M	Oct. 27	Expectation of Random Variables	Chapter 3
W	Oct. 29	Expectation of Random Variables	Chapter 3	Assignment 8 due Extra Problems Extra Problems Solutions
F	Oct. 31	Variance, Covariance, and Correlation	Chapter 3
M	Nov. 3	Election Special	Chapter 3	election.R polls2008.txt states2008.txt totalInfo.txt Summary by State
W	Nov. 5	Generating Functions	Chapter 3	Assignment 9 due
F	Nov. 7	Conditional Expectation	Chapter 3
M	Nov. 10	Inequalities	Chapter 3
W	Nov. 12	Sampling Distributions	Chapter 4	Assignment 10 due
F	Nov. 14	Exams 2C and 3A (cover Chapters 2 and 3)		Chapter 3 Summary
M	Nov. 17	Convergence in Probability Convergence with Probability 1	Chapter 4
W	Nov. 19	Convergence in Distribution	Chapter 4	Assignment 11 due
F	Nov. 21	Monte Carlo	Chapter 4
M	Nov. 24	Normal Distribution Theory	Chapter 4
W	Nov. 26	Simple Random Walk	Chapter 11	Assignment 12 due
F	Nov. 28	Thanksgiving Break
M	Dec. 1	Markov Chains	Chapter 11
W	Dec. 3	Markov Chains	Chapter 11	Assignment 13 due
F	Dec. 5	Exam 3B and 4A (cover Chapters 3 and 4)
M	Dec. 8	Markov Chains	Chapter 11
W	Dec. 10	Problems	Chapter 11	Assignment 14 due Extra Problems (corrected)
F	Dec. 12	Exams 4B and 11A (cover Chapters 4 and 11)
S	Dec. 20	Final Exam Period	Replacement Exams

Chapter Summaries

Summary
Chapter 2 Summary
Chapter 3 Summary
Chapter 4 Summary

Homework Assignments

Assignments are due by 5:00 P.M. on the date due.
Assignments received before 5:00 P.M. the first school day after the due date receive at most 2 points.
Assignments received before 5:00 P.M. the second school day after the due date receive at most 1 point.

Assignment	Date Given	Date Due	Extras	Solutions
Assignment #1	September 3	September 10	Problem 9 (Exercise 1.3.6) is postponed until Assignment #2.	Solution #1
Assignment #2 Assignment #2 (revised)	September 9	September 17	Problems 8-10 are postponed until Assignment #3.	Solution #2
Assignment #3	September 17	September 24		Solution #3
Assignment #4	September 25	October 1		Solution #4
Assignment #5 (corrected)	October 2	October 8		Solution #5
Assignment #6	October 8	October 15		Solution #6
Assignment #7 (corrected) Assignment #7 (revised)	October 16	October 23	Hint	Solution #7
Assignment #8	October 23	October 29	R Installation R Probability Distributions	Solution #8
Assignment #9 Assignment #9 (revised and corrected)	October 30	November 5		Solution #9
Assignment #10	November 6	November 12		Solution #10
Assignment #11	November 14	November 19		Solution #11
Assignment #12	November 20	November 26		Solution #12
Assignment #13	November 25	December 3		Solution #13
Assignment #14	December 3	December 10		Solution #14

Exam Solutions

Exam	Date Given	Solutions
Exam 1A	October 3	Solution
Exam 1B	October 3	Solution
Exam 2A	October 24	Solution
Exam 2B	October 24	Solution
Exam 2A-Makeup	November 3	Solution
Exam 2C	November 14	Solution
Exam 3A	November 14	Solution
Exam 3B	December 5	Solution
Exam 4A	December 5	Solution
Exam 4B	December 12	Solution
Exam 11A	December 12	Solution
Final Exams	December 20	Exams

Final Exam Information

The final exam period is scheduled on Saturday, December 20.

The exam is 7:45 - 9:45 A.M. in Psychology 107.

There are ten exams available. Scores on these exams can replace scores on exams during the semester from the same chapter. There is no penalty for scoring lower.

Election Information

File	Contents
election.R	R code for summarizing poll information and simulating the 2008 presidential election
polls2008.txt	All SurveyUSA and Rasmussen polls since September 1, 2008
states2008.txt	State information
totalInfo.txt	Combined poll data by state
Summary by State	Graphical summaries of polls and posterior distribution of election probabilities by state

Last modified: November 4, 2008

Bret Larget, brlarget@wisc.edu